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The Hindu: Fed affords RBI wiggle room
The U.S. Federal Reserve has
left interest rates unchanged
for a third straight meeting, citing a moderation in economic growth in the
world’s largest economy.
The Federal Open Market Committee will next meet on
June 14, and with Wednesday’s decision it has provided policymakers at the
Reserve Bank of India with just a little more elbow room when they decide on
monetary action at their June 7 sitting. The U.S. is the largest market for
Indian exporters, and some of the economic indicators spotlighted by the Fed
will help them gauge the strength of demand for their goods and services. These
include a distinct softening of fixed investment by U.S. businesses, and slower
growth in household spending despite strong job gains and ‘high’ consumer
sentiment. With global trade sluggish and China’s economic reset still roiling
sentiment in commodities worldwide, the data from the U.S. merit a close watch.
Signs from corporate America in the form of earnings have also offered little
cause for cheer in recent days, with a slew of technology majors, including
Apple Inc., Google’s parent Alphabet Inc. And Microsoft Corp., reporting
disappointing numbers. For its part, the FOMC asserted that it expects economic
conditions to “evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases” in
the benchmark interest rate and reiterated that its policy stance remains
accommodative. Interestingly, one of its 10 members cast a vote of dissent by
recommending that the target range for the federal funds rate be raised by one
quarter of a percentage point. But overall, just four months since the Fed initiated
the process of normalising interest rates, triggering concerns about possible
capital outflows from emerging markets including India, the tone and tenor of
its policy communications suggest that interest rate increases are going to be
fewer than expected before.
Meanwhile,
the Bank of Japan has surprised Asian markets by not adding to its stimulus
programme amid continuing signs that the world’s third largest economy is
struggling to escape deflation. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s efforts to
reinvigorate the Japanese economy through a combination of fiscal and monetary
stimulus have had less than the desired impact, with the gross domestic product
shrinking in the last quarter of 2015. The International Monetary Fund, which
earlier this month pared its forecast for global growth, cited Japan as a key
factor and cut its growth forecast for the country for 2016 and predicted a
likely contraction for its economy in 2017. Clearly, from the perspective of
striking a balance between supporting domestic growth and attracting adequate
capital flows, RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan and his fellow policymakers still
have their task cut out. While in its statement the Fed dropped for the first
time this year a reference to “risks” in the context of the global economy, the
RBI must use the next five weeks to gauge the strength of the headwinds and, if
domestic factors too warrant, be ready to provide policy accommodation to help
bolster India’s economic recovery.
Wiggle
› to (cause to) move up and down and/or from
side to side with small, quick movements:
He tried wiggling the control stick but
nothing happened.
She wiggled her toes in the water.
Gauge
(MEASURE)
› to calculate an amount, especially by
using a measuring device:
Use a thermometer to gauge the temperature.
Reiterate
› to say something again, once or several
times:
The government has reiterated its refusal
to compromise with terrorists.
Bolster
› to support or improve something or make it
stronger:
More money is needed to bolster the
industry.
She tried to bolster my confidence/morale
(= encourage me and make me feel stronger) by telling me that I had a
special talent.
They need to do something to bolster their
image.
The Hindu: A misguided surrender
In a clear and misguided
surrender to Patidar agitators
demanding reservations in
jobs and education, the Gujarat
government has announced a 10 per cent quota for the economically backward among
upper castes. Those with an annual family income of less than Rs.6 lakh will be
eligible. This proposed quota is in addition to the existing 49 per cent
reservations for the Other Backward Classes and SC/sts, and an ordinance is to
be promulgated to this effect. The Patidars constitute a crucial vote base for
the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, and the quota signals the political failure
of the various carrot-and-stick measures attempted by the State government to
get on top of their long agitation. Last year, Rajasthan passed a Bill
providing 14 per cent reservations to the economically backward, in a move to
appease upper castes. Neither legislation is likely to pass judicial scrutiny.
In Indra
Sawhney v. Union of India, the
Supreme Court had limited the total quota to 50 per cent, a figure both States
intend to exceed. Tamil Nadu is an exception as a constitutional amendment was
passed in 1994 to allow the State to continue to set the limit for reservation
at 69 per cent. A series of judgments have established that economic criteria
alone cannot be taken as determinants of backwardness.
Notably, the
demand for reservations by the largely prosperous Patidars has little to do
with their present socio-economic status. Their agitation, like the one waged
by Jats, has been directed more at the reducing socio-economic “gap” between
them and the obcs. Communities that identified themselves with the upper strata
of society are increasingly seeking “backward” status for a variety of reasons.
There is a shift in the aspirations for traditionally landed and business
communities, as their young seek better education and white-collar jobs.
Besides, following the implementation of the Mandal Commission’s
recommendations, OBC leaders have asserted themselves electorally and forged
formidable political alliances. It is the change in the balance of
socio-economic power that has lent popular support to agitations by the middle
castes all over the country; new politicians on the block, such as Hardik
Patel, who has resisted all attempts at being co-opted by the BJP, have emerged
from this social churning. At one level, this adds some weight to the theory
that the reservation policy has helped not only to uplift the socially
underprivileged and the historically backward but also to reduce caste
inequities. But by trying to buy peace on the street with an impulsive
decision, the Gujarat government has exposed its weakness in the face of the
Patidar agitation. If the policy of reservations must be revisited, then the
way to do this is by calling for a review of the list of obcs and restructuring
the creamy layer of exclusion to benefit the really deserving.
Promulgate
(SPREAD)
› to spread beliefs or ideas among a lot of
people
Forge
(COPY)
› to make an illegal copy of something in
order to deceive:
A forged passport
Impulsive
> showing behaviour in which you do
things suddenly without any planning and without considering the effects
they may have:
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