#everydayquiz #TheHindu #IndianExpress #BusinessStandard #EconomicTimes
THE HINDU: Green shoots? Maybe, but they
need watering
Are there green shoots
in the economy? Do Achche Din lie
ahead of us? Given the number of times such false hopes have been raised over
the past couple of years, it is much too hasty to conclude that the recent
thread of positive economic data puts the country firmly on the path of
accelerated economic growth.
While three data points suggest that the economy may be turning the corner,
they don’t offer conclusive evidence that there will be a period of sustained
growth. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP)
has registered a 2 per cent growth in
February after three consecutive months of decline. While it is significant
that industrial activity is returning to the expansionary mode, the cumulative
growth rate of 2.6 per cent in the first eleven months of this fiscal doesn’t
call for cracking open the champagne. After all, this is lower than last year’s
2.8 per cent and also well below the 6 per cent expansion in output the country
has averaged in the last ten years. As for the dip inconsumer price inflation to 4.8 per cent in March from over 5
per cent, this moderation, particularly in the food component of the index, is
good news as it puts more disposable income in the hands of consumers. But
then, low inflation rates have a flip side too. By hurting nominal GDP growth
and corporate revenues, very low inflation can adversely impact job prospects
and income growth, both of which are crucial for the feel-good factor in the
economy. A third trigger to growth is expected from the Reserve Bank of India’s
accommodative policy stance on both interest rates and liquidity, reiterated in
its recent review. It is perhaps this, combined with the Centre’s concerted
push on promoting infrastructure and encouraging start-ups, that has prompted
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan to predict that India is poised for a ‘leap in
production’.
While
the stimulus measures will take some time to play out, one factor that could
have an immediate impact on the economy is a bountiful monsoon. The IMD’s forecast that there is a 64 per cent
probability of the South West monsoon bringing in above-normal or excess rain
is indeed good news after two consecutive seasons of drought-like conditions.
Erratic growth in agriculture has been the wild card in India’s GDP estimates in recent years. In
2015-16, industry and services were estimated to grow at 7.3 and 9.2 per cent,
respectively, while agriculture played spoilsport at 1.1 per cent. Though the
farm economy contributes just 17 per cent of India’s GDP, the last two years
have provided ample proof that rural distress has a disproportionate impact on
consumption. Given that the sector employs nearly half the workforce, everyone
from toilet soap manufacturers to light commercial vehicle makers looks at
rural spends to shore up bottomlines. Policymakers may not like it, but at this
juncture it appears India’s economic prospects are still dependent on the
benevolence of the rain gods.
green
shoots
› (used especially in newspapers) the first signs of an
improvement in an economy that is performing badly:
the green shoots of recovery
reiterate
› to say something again, once or several times:
The government has reiterated its refusal to compromise
with terrorists.
bountiful
› large in amount:
We found a bountiful supply of coconuts on the island.
› generous in giving to others:
our bountiful benefactor
spoilsport
› a person who stops other people from enjoying
themselves:
She did ask her dad if she could have a big party, but
the old spoilsport refused.
juncture
› a particular point in time:
At this juncture, it is impossible to say whether she
will make a full recovery.
expend iconexpend icon Thesaurus
THE HINDU: A firm handshake, not an embrace
Definitive changes in
policy do not happen suddenly one day; often they happen over weeks and months,
and sometimes years. The three-day visit
of U.S. Defence Secretary Ashton Carter, which concluded on Tuesday, appears to
fit into a new security paradigm that is unfurling under the Narendra Modi
government. By agreeing to sign the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement
(LEMOA), India has sent out a clear signal that it has no inhibitions about
being bound in strategic engagements with the U.S. Once concluded, the
agreement would give American aircraft and warships access to Indian military
bases for logistical purposes, including refuelling and repair. In turn,
India’s military will enjoy similar access to U.S. bases. This would
qualitatively transform India’s relations with the U.S. The logistics agreement
had been first proposed officially in June 2004, but the UPA government remained
wary of seeing it through. The then Defence Minister, A.K. Antony, in
particular was concerned that it was too intrusive and could also be perceived
as a signal that India was jettisoning its policy of non-alignment. Indeed, for
all the atmospherics of the American visit this week, it appears that the NDA
government shares some of the UPA’s reticence, especially on India-U.S. issues
that have multilateral implications or that could impact India’s relations with
other countries. Significantly, the logistics agreement, one of three
‘foundational agreements’ the U.S. has been insisting on, was not signed in the
course of Mr. Carter’s visit, as the Americans had expected. This gives New
Delhi time to tackle the ongoing domestic debate over a possible loss of sovereignty.
While
the joint statement refers to ensuring freedom of navigation in the South China Sea,
Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar has been careful to avoid the U.S.’s repeated
references to ‘joint patrols’. Even the agreement on sharing data on commercial
shipping traffic that Mr. Carter had expected to conclude during his visit will
be the subject of another round of talks. The pause is wise. New Delhi must
take a considered view of the repercussions that such a strategic alliance may
have for India’s relations with other countries. Moreover, the U.S.
administration will change in the year ahead, and it would be wise to wait for
the next. Significantly, India’s concerns about continued American military
funding and defence transfers to Pakistan still remain unaddressed. Meanwhile,
Mr. Parrikar and Mr. Carter have agreed to expand collaboration under the
Defence Technology and Trade Initiative, infuse greater complexity in their
military engagements and maritime exercises, commence discussions on submarine
safety and anti-submarine warfare, and initiate a bilateral maritime security
dialogue that would include diplomats and the defence establishments. A firm
handshake with the U.S. is welcome, but it need not be an embrace, just yet.
paradigm
> a model of something, or a very clear and typical
example of something:
Some of these educators are hoping to produce a change in
the current cultural paradigm.
unfurl
› If a flag, sail, or banner unfurls, it becomes open
from a rolled position, and if you unfurl a flag, etc., you make it do this:
The demonstrators unfurled a large banner.
inhibition
> a feeling of embarrassment or worry that prevents
you from saying or doing what you want:
After a couple of drinks he lost his inhibition and
started talking and laughing loudly.
She was determined to shed her inhibitions and have a
good time.
wary
> not completely trusting or certain about something
or someone:
I'm a little wary of/about giving people my address when
I don't know them very well.
Intrusive
› affecting someone in a way that annoys them and makes
them feel uncomfortable:
intrusive questioning
intrusive lighting
jettison
› to get rid of something or someone that is not wanted
or needed:
The station has jettisoned educational broadcasts.
› to decide not to use an idea or plan:
We've had to jettison our trip because of David's
accident.
› to throw goods, fuel, or equipment from a ship or
aircraft to make it lighter:
The captain was forced to jettison the cargo and make an
emergency landing.
reticent
› unwilling to speak about your thoughts or feelings:
He is very reticent about his past.
Most of the students were reticent about answering
questions.
repercussion
› the effect that an action, event, or decision has on
something, especially a bad effect:
Any decrease in tourism could have serious repercussions
for the local economy.
President Kennedy's assassination had far-reaching
repercussions.
embrace
verb (ACCEPT)
> to accept something enthusiastically:
This was an opportunity that he would embrace.
INDIAN EXPRESS: Mahatma was right
India’s most upwardly mobile,
highrise-dotted suburb, hitherto known as Gurgaon or Jaggery Village, now
revels in the name of Gurugram or Heavy Village. India, which is now
sardonically known as Instagram, wonders if this is a leg up, a come-down, or a
fitful scuttle sideways. Haryana Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar effected
the change of name by official firman, apparently in response to popular
demand. Did the extremely successful professionals, academics, entrepreneurs
and newspaper editors who populate Gurgaon really elect to be known as
Gurugrammers? It seems incredible. What next? Will Telangana yearn to be
Telegram? Will Modinagar be modified to Modigram?
No one seems to have canvassed the
opinions of the oldest agrarian communities of the region, who actually grew
sugarcane and made the jaggery from which the name of the village derives. The
few that remain must be one surprised bunch to find the fertile earth swept
from beneath their feet to be replaced by holy land which once quivered under
the masterful tread of Dronacharya. These people have had their identity
displaced once before, when they profitably relinquished their cattle and
ploughs for Pajeros and property dealerships. Now, they have to deal with the
possibility of epic ancestors who drove chariots about.
The group which has invested most
deeply in Gurgaon is the worst hit — the entrepreneurs, outsourcing businesses
and some 250 Fortune 500 companies which have made the capital’s satellite town
their home. How are they explaining this Gurugram affair to principals and
clients the world over? How are they teaching them to pronounce the new name?
Gurgaon, Gurugram — indicating the same thing, yet different. And the
government, which branded the city as an IT and business hub? How chastening it
must be to learn that the Mahatma was right — that India still lives in its
villages.
hitherto
› until now or until a particular time:
Mira revealed hitherto unsuspected
talents on the dance floor
revel
› to dance, drink, sing, etc. at a
party or in public, especially in a noisy way
sardonic
› showing little respect in a humorous
but unkind way, often because you think that you are too important to consider
or discuss a matter:
a sardonic smile/look/comment
fitful
› often stopping and starting and not
happening in a regular or continuous way:
fitful breathing
a fitful sleep
scuttle (RUN)
› [I usually + adv/prep] to move
quickly, with small, short steps, especially in order to escape:
A crab scuttled away under a rock as we
passed.
The children scuttled off as soon as
the headteacher appeared.
canvass verb (GET SUPPORT)
› to try to get political support or
votes, especially by visiting all the houses in an area:
I've been out canvassing for the Labour
Party every evening this week.
quiver
› to shake slightly, often because of
strong emotion:
Lennie's bottom lip quivered and tears
started in his eyes.
relinquish
› to give up something such as a
responsibility or claim:
He has relinquished his claim to the
throne.
She relinquished control of the family
investments to her son.
› to unwillingly stop holding or
keeping something:
She relinquished her hold/grip on the steering
wheel.
chasten
› to make someone understand that they
have failed or done something wrong and make them want to improve:
He was chastened by the defeat and
determined to work harder
BUSINESS STANDARD: Allocations for
MGNREGS
When he came to power, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had made
it clear that he had little time for the United Progressive Alliance's flagship
Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS), the
world's largest rural jobs programme. On the 10th anniversary of MGNREGS last year,
he derisively told Parliament that sending people to "dig ditches"
only reflected 60 years of misrule mainly under the Congress party. But despite
this entertaining rhetoric, the two quarters ending September and December last
year saw consecutive five-year highs in terms of the number of person-days of
employment generated under the scheme. By February, Mr Modi was describing
MGNREGS as a "cause of national pride and celebration". The scheme
ended the financial year 2015-16 generating employment of 2,313 million
person-days (97 per cent of the labour budget) against 1,662 million
person-days (75 per cent) in the previous financial year - spending Rs 41,271
crore, a provisional figure that could finally exceed Rs 50,000 crore when
arrears are accounted for. Certainly, given that India had been suffering
through a second consecutive drought year, this boost in spending was
understandable. So it is almost contrarian that with half of India's districts
still struggling with the effects of drought the government should have
approved an MGNREGS labour budget for 2016-17 that at 2,170 million person-days
is about nine per cent lower than what was approved last year. This is also a
huge 980 million person-days below the states' demand. The labour budget under
the rural jobs scheme is an estimate of how much work it will generate in the
financial year. The ministry of rural development has said these numbers were
open to a mid-year review and could even go up depending on the eventual need.
In terms of policy signals, however, such moves could create uncertainty at the
field level - because, despite being demand-driven in design, MGNREGS's agenda
is set by the Centre's labour budget in practice.
In principle, the government's initial antipathy for the scheme can be sympathised with. It urgently needs to rein in expenditure and commitment to a jobs programme of this magnitude and with variable results can certainly be viewed as ultimately unsustainable. But there is a compelling counter-argument. Though the central machinery's drought response mechanism has improved considerably - its management of one of the worst droughts of the century in 2009 is a case in point - the past two years have seen rural distress on an unprecedented scale, demanding exceptional levels of intervention. In the absence of an alternative plan of action, MGNREGS is the only game in town, so to speak. Thus, it is to be hoped that the government would be able to sustain the programme in the current year.
In the longer run, it would stand the government in better stead if it were to focus on a more durable programme to "drought-proof" the economy instead of focusing on programmes that take up scarce administrative resources and do not reach all the needy. For example, more than half of India's agricultural land is rain-fed and the country is becoming increasingly water-starved. So investment in the kind of drip irrigation networks that made Gujarat bloom is a good start. Speeding up already commendable efforts to remove decades-old structural blocks in markets and supply chains is another. These solutions are scarcely new nor, given this government's stated commitment on this score, so hard to implement.
In principle, the government's initial antipathy for the scheme can be sympathised with. It urgently needs to rein in expenditure and commitment to a jobs programme of this magnitude and with variable results can certainly be viewed as ultimately unsustainable. But there is a compelling counter-argument. Though the central machinery's drought response mechanism has improved considerably - its management of one of the worst droughts of the century in 2009 is a case in point - the past two years have seen rural distress on an unprecedented scale, demanding exceptional levels of intervention. In the absence of an alternative plan of action, MGNREGS is the only game in town, so to speak. Thus, it is to be hoped that the government would be able to sustain the programme in the current year.
In the longer run, it would stand the government in better stead if it were to focus on a more durable programme to "drought-proof" the economy instead of focusing on programmes that take up scarce administrative resources and do not reach all the needy. For example, more than half of India's agricultural land is rain-fed and the country is becoming increasingly water-starved. So investment in the kind of drip irrigation networks that made Gujarat bloom is a good start. Speeding up already commendable efforts to remove decades-old structural blocks in markets and supply chains is another. These solutions are scarcely new nor, given this government's stated commitment on this score, so hard to implement.
arrears
› money that is owed and should already
have been paid:
rent arrears
antipathy
› a feeling of strong dislike,
opposition, or anger:
Despite the deep antipathies between
them, the two sides have managed to negotiate an agreement.
Declarations of racial antipathy
against ethnic minorities will not be tolerated.
rein sth back
(ACTIVITY)
›
to control an emotion, activity, or situation to prevent it from
becoming too powerful:
We tried to rein in our excitement and
curiosity.
Reports today suggest consumers are
already reining back spending.
scarce
>not easy to find or get:
Food and clean water were becoming
scarce.
scarce resources
Apr 14 2016 : The Economic Times (Bangalore)
Good News, At Last, on the Monsoon
After two successive droughts, the weather office has forecast an
`above normal' monsoon this year, which comes as welcome relief that would
shore up expectations in agriculture and should consequently rev up rural
demand and boost the overall growth momentum. The first-stage forecast of the
India Meteorological Department (IMD) is that rainfall during the southwest
monsoon season of June-September is expected to be 106% of the Long Period
Average (LPA). Note that 96-104% of the LPA is considered `normal' and the IMD
is predicting `above normal' rains for the first time since 1999.
Also
notable is the fact that the IMD expects well-distributed rainfall nationally .
The Centre, meanwhile, has okayed the National Hydrology Project, which has an
outlay of over Rs 3,600 crore, designed to provide real-time information on
water resources including on groundwater and facilitate their scientific,
sustainable and more equitable management. The plan is that data from the
National Water Infor matics Centre would be seamlessly accessed by one and all
in the villagedistrictstate. The fact remains that there is a huge potential to
conserve and economise on water usage. India uses two-to-four times as much
water as ChinaUS to produce one unit of major food crops. We also need to
speedily diffuse drip irrigation systems and incentivise crop selection in each
region to suit its agro-climatic potential: why grow water-guzzling sugarcane
in water-scarce Maharashtra, when Bihar is so much better suited for the crop?
Besides, fruit, vegetables and livestock cultivation are all more relatively water-intensive. And as we cope with rising demand for the superior foods, we need to proactively improve water management, especially as the distribution of water resources is very uneven nationwide.
Besides, fruit, vegetables and livestock cultivation are all more relatively water-intensive. And as we cope with rising demand for the superior foods, we need to proactively improve water management, especially as the distribution of water resources is very uneven nationwide.
shore sth up
› to stop a wall or a building from
falling down by supporting it with building materials such as wood or metal:
Boundary walls have had to be shored
up.
› to support or improve an
organization, agreement, or system that is not working effectively or that is
likely to fail:
The new public relations manager has
the difficult task of shoring up the company's troubled image.
rev up (sb/sth)
› to become more active, or to make
someone or something become more active:
The hotel is revving up for the busy
summer season.
diffuse
› to (cause something to) spread in
many directions:
Television is a powerful means of
diffusing knowledge.
guzzle
› to drink quickly, eagerly, and
usually in large amounts:
He guzzled his beer and ordered
another.
› to use large amounts of petrol very
quickly:
The car guzzles a gallon of gas every
15 miles.
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