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THE
HINDU: Why Siachen must be demilitarised
The February
3 avalanche on the Siachen glacier that
buried 10 Indian Army soldiers is
a stark reminder to both India and Pakistan about the cost of military
deployment in such inhospitable territory.
The bodies of most soldiers of the
19 Madras Regiment are yet to be recovered from the post on the northern part
of the glacier, at a height of 19,600 feet. This was not an isolated incident
but part of a growing trend in that region, as global warming dramatically
affects the glacier. Last month, four soldiers of 3 Ladakh Scouts were killed
when an avalanche hit a patrol party in the Ladakh region, not very far from
the site of the present tragedy. Avalanches are a threat not just to Indian
soldiers, but also to the Pakistani troops. In April 2012, in the Gayari
sector, 129 soldiers of the 6th Northern Light Infantry of the Pakistani military
and 11 civilian contractors were
buried by a massive avalanche. It is not just avalanches; the challenging terrain
of the glacier and its surroundings as a whole have been regularly claiming
lives. According to reliable estimates, over 2,000 soldiers from both sides
have died on the Siachen glacier since 1984, when India beat Pakistan by a few
days to occupy many of the strategic locations on the glacier.
Ever
since the two militaries began a costly engagement on the glacier, there have
been numerous efforts by both countries to find a way to demilitarise the
glacier. In June 1989, they came very close to clinching a final deal. The two
sides had agreed to “work towards a comprehensive settlement, based on
redeployment of forces to reduce the chance of conflict, avoidance of the use
of force and the determination of future positions on the ground so as to
conform with the Shimla Agreement and to ensure durable peace in the Siachen
area”. Ever since then, India and Pakistan have tried diplomatically to find
away to demilitarise the region. However, a lack of political will on both
sides has meant that the status quo holds, and soldiers continue to pay a very
high price in that remote snowy outpost. India has in the past suggested
delineation of the Line of Control north of NJ 9842, redeployment of troops on
both sides to agreed positions after demarcating their existing positions, a
zone of disengagement, and a monitoring mechanism to maintain the peace. Given
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s personal initiative to visit Lahore on Christmas
day and to push forward peace with Pakistan, it would only be the next logical
step to look at the low-hanging fruits in bilateral issues to build trust. The
demilitarisation of Siachen is definitely doable. This is not only because it
is diplomatically possible, but also because there is a critical mass of
opinion in both India and Pakistan that neither can sacrifice, or put in harm’s
way, so many lives on the inhospitable glacier. If the initiative is not seized
by both sides now, the vagaries of nature will continue to exact a toll on
forces deployed in Siachen, even if peace holds.
de·mil·i·ta·rize
Remove all
military forces from (an area).
av·a·lanche
A mass of snow,
ice, and rocks falling rapidly down a mountainside.
stark
Severe or bare
in appearance or outline.
deployment
The
distribution of forces in preparation for battle or work
in·hos·pi·ta·ble
(of an
environment) harsh and difficult to live in.
troop
A group of
soldiers, especially a cavalry unit commanded by a captain, or an airborne
unit.
ter·rain
A stretch of
land, especially with regard to its physical features.
clinch
Confirm or
settle (a contract or bargain
de·lin·e·a·tion
The action of
describing or portraying something precisely.
de·mar·cate
Set the
boundaries or limits of.
do·a·ble
Within one's
powers; feasible.
va·gar·y
An unexpected
and inexplicable change in a situation or in someone's behavior.
INDIAN
EXPRESS: Don’t look for trends
The IPL auctions have
started resembling those 100-crore Bollywood hits. Last weekend’s Season 9
player sale further blurred the thin line that separates T20 cricket and
entertainment. The Sunday auction, like the much-awaited Friday release,
attracted eyeballs. It also got endlessly hash-tagged. Like the Bollywood
biggies, the IPL auction, too, had an overseas market and a stale script. There
were expected surprises, illogical sub-plots and several overnight heroes —
those overnight millionaires — smiling from newspapers’ front pages the next
day. Stories of rags to riches and the triumph of the underdog abounded.
The last eight IPL
editions have shown that auction-day leaps of faith by franchise owners have
mostly proved irrational. Last year, Kolkata Knight Riders bought a 20-year-old
mystery spinner K.C. Cariappa for Rs 2.40 crore. The mystery deepened as he was
hardly fielded during the season and his contract wasn’t renewed. The young boy
was again on sale this time and went for a bargain rate. The game’s sharpest
brains have tried to get a grip of the monster called T20 but spectacularly
failed. Several success formulae were floated but all failed the test of time.
They first called the IPL a tournament for the young and eager only to change
tack after nearly 40 veterans started dominating match days. The myth about
batsmen winning matches has also been short-lived.
T20’s success stems
from its unpredictability. Looking for trends and searching for success mantras
is a futile exercise. This is a format where 10 batsmen share 20 overs between
them. For a game overtly favouring batsmen, T20 is a slug-fest between men with
large chunks of wood in their hands. The most successful IPL bowler, the
ever-so-reliable Lasith Malinga, going by the nearly 200 matches he has played,
averages 1.4 wickets a game. That means it’s tough to get batsmen out and even
those with modest skills can chase down big totals. Like the auction, T20 too
is a lottery. Like the 100-crore hits, they are entertaining but illogical.
blurred
Unable to see
or be seen clearly.
rag
Make fun of
(someone) in a loud, boisterous manner.
tri·umph
A great victory
or achievement.
un·der·dog
A competitor
thought to have little chance of winning a fight or contest
a·bound
Exist in large
numbers or amounts.
spectacularly
In a
spectacular manner; "the area was spectacularly scenic"
float
Rest or move on
or near the surface of a liquid without sinking.
tack
A small, sharp,
broad-headed nail.
stem
The main body
or stalk of a plant or shrub, typically rising above ground but occasionally
subterranean.
fu·tile
Incapable of
producing any useful result; pointless.
THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS:: Chlorophile: Jairam Ramesh’s long shadow
on agri biotech
Today is the sixth anniversary of then environment
minister Jairam Ramesh’s decision to put on hold the commercial release of
genetically-modified (GM) Bt brinjal. During these six years, not a single
genetically-engineered crop has been approved. The agricultural biotechnology
industry is in deep freeze. Research departments are being kept alive and field
trials for bio-safety data are being conducted at considerable expense in the
hope that the government will pluck the courage to break the thrall of ideologues
and activists on the science.
Ramesh’s
decision was an example of prejudice passing off as public policy and ‘proof’
being selectively picked to fit a foregone conclusion. No evidence in favour of
Bt brinjal was convincing for him while adverse opinion was readily accepted. C
Kameswara Rao of the Bengaluru-based Foundation for Biotechnology Awareness and
Education says of 26 submissions from Indian scientists, 16 supported Bt
brinjal and 10 opposed it. Eight scientists from abroad endorsed it, he says,
and 10 were critical. Ramesh regarded the opposers, including Giles
Eric-Seralini of Paris, who, Rao says, was commissioned by Greenpeace to
evaluate the Bt brinjal dossier, as ‘independent’. Seralini’s paper on GM maize
and tumours in rats published in Food and Chemical Toxicology was later
withdrawn by publisher Elsevier for being inconclusive (not necessarily
incorrect).
Ramesh
disregarded the opinion of two statutory regulatory authorities, and two expert
committees of scientists, which said Bt brinjal was safe for cultivation. In an
interview to this correspondent last month, Ramesh dismissed the report of the
six constituents of the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS) as a
puff job which ‘reads like the annual report of some company.’ NAAS had said,
‘[T]he overwhelming view is that the available evidence has shown adequately
and beyond reasonable doubt that Bt brinjal is safe for human consumption and
that its environmental effects are negligible. It is appropriate now to release
Bt brinjal for cultivation in specific farmers’ fields in identified states.’
Ramesh
admits his decision was influenced by the ‘toxic DNA’ of Monsanto, the American
multinational which had licensed the insecticidal Bt gene to Maharashtra Hydrid
Seeds Co (Mahyco) on payment of a one-time fee. Mahyco had developed Bt brinjal
on its own. It had offered the technology to three public research institutes
for back-crossing into their varieties, whose seeds farmers could sow, unlike
Bt cottonseed which they have to buy year after year. It might have been a
strategy to whittle down opposition and create public acceptance for GM food
crops.
Ramesh
frowns on this arrangement though he laments that in the ‘last 15-20 years,
there has been systematic effort to choke R&D in the public sector and
promote R&D in the private sector.’ It is an extraordinary admission to
make that governments led or supported by the Congress, BJP and the
communists were engaged in subverting public sector research. Government outlay
for agricultural research has shrunk even as subsidies have bloated. There is a
government deficit in state institutes and little accountability. These
factors, rather than a grand conspiracy, are responsible for public
institutions losing the edge in research.
Ramesh
dislikes Monsanto for supplying a defoliant called Agent Orange, which the US
military used in Vietnam to expose enemy soldiers in jungle hideouts. Does a
company have vicarious liability for consequences arising from use of its
products? Many German chemical companies should be barred by this logic for
supporting the Nazi war effort. No car company could operate in India if the
health costs of pollution were piled on them. If Monsanto’s antecedents were an
issue, it could not have operated in India for 40 years and been the leader of
Bt cottonseed technology. Incidentally, in 2014, Vietnam approved the
cultivation of Monsanto’s herbicide-tolerant GM maize (though Ramesh could not
have factored that in).
In
his book, Green Signals Ramesh regards himself as a quasi-judicial authority
and calls the written explanations for his decisions, ‘speaking orders’ in the
manner of judges. He sees himself as an institution-builder and cites as
examples the setting up of the National Green Tribunal, the (stillborn)
initiative for an independent environmental assessment and monitoring authority,
and the creation of a framework for estimating Green GDP. But he undermines the
Genetic Engineering Approval Committee (GEAC), questions integrity of its
members, and through an executive order downgrades it into an ‘appraisals’
body. He sees a conflict of interest in the GEAC having members from the
department of biotechnology, interested in promoting agricultural
biotechnology. Qualification is a disqualification for him.
Though
Mahyco got accredited public sector or private laboratories to evaluate Bt brinjal’s
bio-safety data, Ramesh faults them for not being ‘independent’. It is not as
if Mahyco had itself vetted and certified the data it had collected. It was
following prescribed procedure. It cannot be asked to jump a hoop that is not
provided in the rules.
Ramesh
says he had not made no-objection certificates from state government for field
trials mandatory through one cannot understand how else their consent could be
obtained. He says the moratorium on Bt brinjal was not a ban; he had hoped that
it would last no more than two or three years by when the Biotechnology
Regulatory Authority of India would have been set up through an act of
Parliament (the Bill lapsed in 2014 and has not been re-introduced); a set of
protocols for testing of genetically-engineered food crops would be agreed
upon; and states brought on board. Given the fears he had aroused through seven
public hearings across the country, he was being very optimistic. The public
hearings themselves were an innovation where baying activists were let loose on
scientists. Ramesh says they demonstrated that (a) scientists had never
communicated to the public and (b) the extreme intolerance of civil society
organisations to any form of scientific discussion or debate.
That
intolerance is evident in the controversy over GM mustard, which is an
indigenous effort. It has been developed by Deepak Pental, geneticist and
former vice-chancellor of Delhi University with funding from the National Dairy
Development Board and the department of biotechnology. But the activists have
cranked up their propaganda machines. They are conducting online signature
campaigns, holding demonstrations and lobbying political leaders.
Ramesh
says his decision applied only to Bt brinjal and he is not opposed to
agricultural biotechnology. He asserts he was an early advocate of Bt cotton
and, soon after the Bt brinjal decision, allowed field trials of GM rubber
despite opposition from the Kerala government.
Well,
the activists have scant respect for nuance. If they can stoop to mendacity,
there must be incentives for their opposition, including pecuniary ones. Mathia
Chowdhury, the agriculture minister of Bangladesh, who allowed Bt brinjal to be
cultivated on the basis of Indian bio-safety data, called the activists either
ignorant or devious. Environment minister Prakash Javadekar should keep that in
mind.
put on hold
to stop all activity or communication with someone.
pluck
Take hold of
(something) and quickly remove it from its place; pick.
thrall
The state of
being in someone's power or having great power over someone.
prej·u·dice
Preconceived
opinion that is not based on reason or actual experience
read·i·ly
Without
hesitation or reluctance; willingly.
dos·si·er
A collection of
documents about a particular person, event, or subject.
tu·mor
A swelling of a
part of the body, generally without inflammation, caused by an abnormal growth
of tissue, whether benign or malignant.
dis·re·gard
Pay no
attention to; ignore
puff
A short,
explosive burst of breath or wind.
o·ver·whelm·ing
Very great in
amount.
to reduce the amount of, as if by whittling;
pare down; take away by degrees (usually followed by down, away, etc.): to whittle down the
company's overhead; to whittle away
one's inheritance
frown
Furrow one's
brow in an expression of disapproval, displeasure, or concentration.
la·ment
A passionate
expression of grief or sorrow.
choke
(of a person or
animal) have severe difficulty in breathing because of a constricted or
obstructed throat or a lack of air.
sub·vert
Undermine the
power and authority of (an established system or institution).
shrink
Become or make
smaller in size or amount; contract or cause to contract
bloat·ed
(of part of the
body) swollen with fluid or gas.
de·fo·li·ant
A chemical that
removes the leaves from trees and plants and is often used in warfare.
hide·out
A hiding place,
especially one used by someone who has broken the law.
vi·car·i·ous
Experienced in
the imagination through the feelings or actions of another person.
bar
Fasten
(something, especially a door or window) with a bar or bars.
hoop
A circular band
of metal, wood, or similar material, especially one used for binding the staves
of barrels or forming part of a framework.
mor·a·to·ri·um
A temporary
prohibition of an activity
bay
(of a dog,
especially a large one) bark or howl loudly.
in·dig·e·nous
Originating or
occurring naturally in a particular place; native.
crank
Turn the
crankshaft of (an internal combustion engine), typically in order to start the
engine.
prop·a·gan·da
Information,
especially of a biased or misleading nature, used to promote or publicize a
particular political cause or point of view.
lob·by
Seek to
influence (a politician or public official) on an issue.
scant
Barely
sufficient or adequate.
nu·ance
A subtle
difference in or shade of meaning, expression, or sound.
men·dac·i·ty
Untruthfulness.
pe·cu·ni·ar·y
Of, relating
to, or consisting of money.
de·vi·ous
Showing a
skillful use of underhanded tactics to achieve goals
BUSINESS STANDARD: Comfort and concern
Advance estimates of national income for 2015-16
were released on Monday, and they will cause both a certain degree of comfort
and concern to observers of the Indian economy. The Central Statistics Office
has said that gross domestic product (GDP) will grow at 7.6 per cent in real
terms - in other words, at constant prices - for the whole financial year,
2015-16. This represents an acceleration over 2014-15, in which the economy
grew at 7.2 per cent. Certainly, it appears that a recovery is underway - especially
as both of these years were drought-hit. However, when the figures for the
third quarter in the current financial year are examined, some concerns begin
to creep in. Growth at constant prices for the first quarter of 2015-16 was
revised upwards at 7.6 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y); for the second quarter,
it was scaled up at 7.7 per cent. However, the third quarter clocked in at 7.3
per cent y-o-y, which suggests a slight within-year deceleration. A significant
acceleration will thus have to be seen in the final quarter, currently
underway, in order to meet the whole-year estimate of 7.6 per cent. A
back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that 7.8 per cent growth in the
fourth quarter will be needed.
There have been some questions asked of late about the methods by which the GDP figures are calculated. Sadly, the new release will not answer them to everyone's satisfaction. For one, the deflator - the method used to move from estimates at current prices to those at constant 2011-12 prices - has puzzlingly changed between quarters. In the second quarter this year, GDP at constant prices grew by 1.3 percentage points more than GDP at current prices; in the third quarter, it grew 1.9 percentage points less. This 3.2 percentage point swing in the calculation will give rise to more questions, not less. The gap between GDP and gross value added has also climbed since 2014-15 - this might be explained by taxes and a lower subsidy outgo, caused by a reduction in international fuel prices.
When looking at the sectoral break up, certain indicators stand out. For one, agriculture has had another bad year, with the Central Statistics Organisation (CSO) estimating it will grow at only 1.1 per cent in 2015-16. Note that in 2014-15, agriculture actually shrank by 0.2 per cent, so it has done better this year - but, still, the drought has made a discernible difference. Within agriculture, there has been decent growth only in forests, fisheries and livestock - which supports the argument that the apparent "drought-proofing" of agriculture comes essentially from these, more modern, areas of the rural economy. Then there is manufacturing, which the CSO says will clock an enviable 9.5 per cent growth at constant prices over the full year of 2015-16. This follows third-quarter growth of 12.6 per cent. If this is the case, then it is difficult to see why the relevant private sector companies are unhappy with their growth - especially since the private corporate sector's growth is to come in at 9.9 per cent over the year, according to the CSO. Judging by the numbers, a manufacturing revival is well and truly on. What should give pause, however, is the real concern that investment is not doing its fair share - gross fixed capital formation in 2015-16 is to be 29.4 per cent of GDP, lower than the 30.8 per cent in 2014-15. This does not bode well for the sustainability of the recovery.
There have been some questions asked of late about the methods by which the GDP figures are calculated. Sadly, the new release will not answer them to everyone's satisfaction. For one, the deflator - the method used to move from estimates at current prices to those at constant 2011-12 prices - has puzzlingly changed between quarters. In the second quarter this year, GDP at constant prices grew by 1.3 percentage points more than GDP at current prices; in the third quarter, it grew 1.9 percentage points less. This 3.2 percentage point swing in the calculation will give rise to more questions, not less. The gap between GDP and gross value added has also climbed since 2014-15 - this might be explained by taxes and a lower subsidy outgo, caused by a reduction in international fuel prices.
When looking at the sectoral break up, certain indicators stand out. For one, agriculture has had another bad year, with the Central Statistics Organisation (CSO) estimating it will grow at only 1.1 per cent in 2015-16. Note that in 2014-15, agriculture actually shrank by 0.2 per cent, so it has done better this year - but, still, the drought has made a discernible difference. Within agriculture, there has been decent growth only in forests, fisheries and livestock - which supports the argument that the apparent "drought-proofing" of agriculture comes essentially from these, more modern, areas of the rural economy. Then there is manufacturing, which the CSO says will clock an enviable 9.5 per cent growth at constant prices over the full year of 2015-16. This follows third-quarter growth of 12.6 per cent. If this is the case, then it is difficult to see why the relevant private sector companies are unhappy with their growth - especially since the private corporate sector's growth is to come in at 9.9 per cent over the year, according to the CSO. Judging by the numbers, a manufacturing revival is well and truly on. What should give pause, however, is the real concern that investment is not doing its fair share - gross fixed capital formation in 2015-16 is to be 29.4 per cent of GDP, lower than the 30.8 per cent in 2014-15. This does not bode well for the sustainability of the recovery.
un·der·way
Having started
and in progress; being done or carried out
creep in
to move slowly with the body close to the
ground, as a reptile or an insect, or a person on hands and knees. 2. to
approach slowly, imperceptibly, or stealthily (often followed by up): We crept
up and peeked over the wall
out·go
The outlay of
money.
‘dis·cern·i·ble
Able to be
discerned; perceptible.
en·vi·a·ble
Arousing or
likely to arouse envy.
en·vy
A feeling of
discontented or resentful longing aroused by someone else's possessions,
qualities, or luck.
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