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TIMES OF INDIA: Keep It Steady
Good economic steering परिचालन can counter प्रतिकार करना the volatility अस्थिरता flowing from China and West Asia
At the very beginning of 2016, the world got a reminder that
China's economic problems will spill over प्लवन प्रभाव, thereby
making for an uncertain global economic environment. On Monday , China's stock
market plunged प्रवेश
following the release of disappointing economic data. The turmoil बखेड़ा in the
world's second largest economy rippled लहरदार across
borders and in India both equity and currency markets were adversely प्रतिकूल रूप से
affected. Monday's events should serve as a wake-up call in India. The year
ahead is likely to be marked by volatility on account of China's economic
challenges and geopolitical tensions elsewhere. In this situation, sound
domestic economic indicators are the best line of defence against external
shocks.
China is
in the midst बीच of a far-reaching व्यापक economic
transformation परिवर्तन which
aims to boost domestic consumption and enhance the role of markets in
allocating resources. A fallout उतार of the
transformation has been enhanced बढ़ा हुआ volatility
in global financial markets.
India
over the last couple of years has worked towards insulating रोधक its
economy from this volatility by embarking किसी काम में लगना on a
fiscal consolidation एकीकरण
exercise. This domestic initiative received a boost thro ugh a collapse विनाश in oil
price. Consequently , India's macroeconomic indicators have recorded a marked
improvement and it is perhaps the most impressive among major emerging markets.
Still, it
will be premature समय पूर्व to feel
secure. Problems are not limited to just China's economic turbulence अशांति .
Escalating तीव्र
geopolitical tensions in West Asia, particularly after the recent round of
frictionटकराव between Saudi Arabia and Iran, are worrisome. Saudi Arabia's
decision to execute Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, a Saudi Shiite cleric, has exacerbated
बिगड़ी हुई को और बिगाड़ना its long standing problems with Iran. For
India, events in West Asia have significant economic consequences. Most of our
oil is imported from there and remittances भेजा हुआ रुपया of
Indian workers in West Asia help keep the current account deficit under
control. String together these disparate असमान
elements, the inevitable जो टल न सके conclusion is that the Indian economy this
year will have to cope with a volatile external environment.
While it
is important that India conveys प्रकट करना an
impression of a stable policy environment on the fiscal consolidation front,
sea change would be welcome on the political gridlock that is holding up a host
of economic reforms the foremost of which is of course GST.India's economy is
today tightly integrated with the rest of the world through channels of trade
and capital flows. Given this situation, it would be unwise to fritter away समय नष्ट करना hard won gains.
THE ECONOMIC TIMES: To Plan or
Not to Plan is Not the Question
We need planning, if not a five-year
framework
Five-year plans are not possible in a market economy , said Niti
Aayog vice chairperson Arvind Panagariya. If India will still have a 13th
Five-year Plan, depends on the PM. Should India abandon त्याग देना planning
altogether? The reality is that the planning process has evolved विकसित over
time.In any case, India never had Soviet-type planning, in which all investment
decisions were centrally determined. As the ability of the private sector to
raise capital and formulate large projects evolved, planning changed itself to
give it more room, with the economic reforms of 1991 putting its formal stamp
of approval on the process.But dispensing प्रदान करना with
five-year plans is not the same thing as dispensing with planning.
As the
modern economy becomes ever more complex पेचीदा and intertwined एक साथ मिलना with an
ever expanding number of local and external factors, planning becomes
inevitable. Urbanisation, for example, works only when it is planned.Otherwise,
you get dysfunctional दुष्क्रियाशील towns without infrastructure, gleaming चमक towers
of steel and glass jutting बाहर निकला हुआ होना out of a
morass दलदल of garbage,
gridlocked traffic, fraying प्रतिस्पर्धा tempers and crime. How
many lanes should a major road connecting two towns have or how many runways
should an airport have are questions that can be answered only with planning at
a macro level, because how many more roads or airports will come up cannot be
determined by the information available to commercial decision makers. Then
again, a lot of what goes by the name of planning in India is policy
coordination. You want to slash बहुत ज्यादा कटौती करना air
pollution below a threshold दहलीज़; so how
much should refineries invest to improve the quality of fuel to achieve that
and over what time horizon? Neither the environment nor the oil ministry would
come up with the numbers on its own, so the planning process steps in.
Planning
remains relevant as a builder of alternative policy scenarios, each coherent
समझने में सरल within itself, to help not just the state but also private agents
make more informed choices. So long as it comes with no straitjacket attached,
it should continue, with a five-year tag or not.
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