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THE
HINDU: Sobering reflection from Davos
BUSINESS STANDARD: The survivors
sur·vi·vor
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THE HINDU: Alert, fair, transparent
the arrest and detention of at least 18 people from across the country by the
National Investigation Agency and the Delhi Police over the last few days for
their alleged terror plans and sympathies to the Islamic State is a stark warning that the
authorities need to be on heightened alert.
The Delhi Police caught four young
men from Uttarakhand, while the rest have been arrested by the NIA from across
India. Both groups are accused of planning to carry out major terrorist
attacks. The NIA believes that the 14 men in its custody were in the process of
organising a training camp to prepare for multiple attacks against domestic and foreign targets. Officials say that
both the arrested groups had been in touch with Shafi Armar alias Yusuf, who
heads a terrorist group named Ansar-ul-Tawhid that is aligned with the
Islamic State and has
former members of the Indian Mujahideen in its ranks. This is a clear
indication that the IS is no more a danger lurking in some distant land. In
fact, next-door Bangladesh has already witnessed a few lone-wolf attacks suspected to have been carried out by IS sympathisers.
The
authorities now have the challenge of identifying terrorist modules, and
possible lone wolves, without allowing any attendant excesses. Real-life
investigations are painstaking tasks, and the Indian agencies have often failed
in due diligence on that front. Therefore it is important that the government
keep a close watch to ensure that the NIA and the Delhi Police carry out transparent
and professional investigations into the recent arrests. That will ensure
public safety and also protect the individual liberty of those accused of
terror, but pending a fair trial. Experience worldwide has shown that the
perception game is practically won or lost while dealing with terrorist
suspects. The investigations must be time-bound and chargesheets must be filed
within a reasonable timeframe. A quick
trial is advisable — to showcase
that India has an uncompromising posture against terrorism and will hand out
punishments without any delay and swiftly, while protecting the constitutional
rights of each of its resident. Showcasing such a balanced approach towards
terrorism is also very important to send out the message to the aggrieved and those
influenced by violent ideologies that Indian democracy is their best bet for a
fair life. Young people drawn to various waves of violence through history have
mostly been individuals harbouring a perceived strong sense of grievance
against the state. Their violent activities are a response to what they believe
to be injustices inflicted by the powerful. In India, there have been three
distinct waves of domestic Islamist terrorism since the early 1990s. There is
no better way of addressing the grave threat posed by young citizens drawn to
extremist, violent ideologies than a fair, transparent and swift trial.
trans·par·ent
(of a material or
article) allowing light to pass through so that objects behind can be
distinctly seen.
al·leged
(of an incident or a
person) said, without proof, to have taken place or to have a specified illegal
or undesirable quality.
stark
Severe or bare in
appearance or outline.
ac·cused
A person or group of
people who are charged with or on trial for a crime.
lurk
(of a person or animal)
be or remain hidden so as to wait in ambush for someone or something.
lone
Having no companions;
solitary or single
pains·tak·ing
Done with or employing
great care and thoroughness.
swift
Happening quickly or
promptly.
ag·grieved
Feeling resentment at
having been unfairly treated.
har·bor
Keep (a thought or
feeling, typically a negative one) in one's mind, especially secretly.
in·flict
Cause (something
unpleasant or painful) to be suffered by someone or something.
THE
HINDU: Sobering reflection from Davos
China’s stock market turbulence and the impact its growth slowdown is
having on the global economy were dominant themes last week at the
annualWorld Economic Forum in the
Swiss Alpine resort of Davos. And as the four-day gathering of international
finance and corporate captains, government policymakers and central bankers
wound down on Saturday, the jury was still out on whether China is headed for a
hard landing or is in control of its transition. That China and its fortunes have
come to dominate discussions is testimony to the extent to which its companies
and manufacturing industry have integrated with the rest of the world, as well
as to the increased international concern over the perceived opacity of the
country’s banking and financial sector’s real levels of indebtedness. This was
perhaps best reflected in International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde’s exhortation that
financial markets need more “clarity and certainty” about China’s management of
the yuan’s exchange rate, especially with reference to the U.S. dollar. A
modeling study done by Oxford Economics posits that a 10 per cent decline in
the value of the Chinese currency against the dollar by the third quarter of
2016 — if accompanied by resultant competitive devaluations among emerging
market peers — could roil economies and markets worldwide, with the eurozone
and Japan projected to be the hardest hit. The domino effect could retard
global growth by 0.2 per cent and hurt countries including the U.S., Brazil, Russia
and India. Interestingly though, the same study projects that China would have
little to show by way of gains from the yuan’s weakness, lending credence to
the Chinese authorities’ assertions that they are not interested in engendering
a scenario of competitive devaluations. Still, that second-order effects of
what happens in China will be hard to hazard a guess about has already been
proven by the recent volatility seen in markets worldwide. And the brave words
of regulators notwithstanding, central bankers are running out of ammunition.
As Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan said, monetary
easing may have run its course and reached the limits of efficacy as a policy
tool.
The
other key takeaway from this year’s meeting at Davos was showcased in Pope
Francis’s admonition to the global political and economic elite to reflect on
their own role in creating inequality. An Oxfam study, released ahead of the
WEF meet, said the richest 1 per cent owned as much wealth as the remaining 99
per cent combined did, with the gap in wealth widening even faster than
anticipated. With politicians across continents and the entire ideological
spectrum, from the far-right to the far-left, focusing their rhetoric and
stances on the growing rich-poor divide and seeking to tap the burgeoning
discontent for electoral gains, the Pope’s call to the wealthy and powerful to
act to help address the inequality lends a powerful moral edge to the issue.
so·ber
Make or become sober
after drinking alcohol
for·tune
Chance or luck as an
external, arbitrary force affecting human affairs.
tes·ti·mo·ny
A formal written or
spoken statement, especially one given in a court of law.
in·te·grate
Combine (one thing) with
another so that they become a whole.
o·pac·i·ty
The condition of lacking
transparency or translucence; opaqueness.
peer
A member of the nobility
in Britain or Ireland, comprising the ranks of duke, marquess, earl, viscount,
and baron.
roil
Make (a liquid) turbid or
muddy by disturbing the sediment.
as·ser·tion
A confident and forceful
statement of fact or belief.
en·gen·der
Cause or give rise to (a
feeling, situation, or condition
volatility
The property of changing
readily from a solid or liquid to a vapor
ef·fi·ca·cy
The ability to produce a
desired or intended result.
take·a·way
A key fact, point, or
idea to be remembered, typically one emerging from a discussion or meeting.
ad·mo·ni·tion
An act or action of
admonishing; authoritative counsel or warning.
bur·geon
Begin to grow or increase
rapidly; flourish.
dis·con·tent
Lack of contentment;
dissatisfaction with one's circumstances.
INDIAN EXPRESS: Mixed
diagnosis
There is quite a bit
that is reassuring about the results of the first phase of the National Family
Health Survey (NFHS) for 2015-16, covering 13 states and two Union territories.
Most states have registered significant improvements in maternal and child
health indicators compared to the last survey that was carried out in 2005-06.
Bihar, for instance, has seen a reduction in both infant as well as under-five
child mortality rates from 61 and 84 per 1,000 live births to 48 and 58,
respectively. This has been accompanied by a drop in total fertility rate — the
average number of children born to a woman during her reproductive life span —
from 4 to 3.4 and an increase in deliveries happening in hospitals from 19.9 to
63.8 per cent. Similar progress has been recorded in other states, too, be it
Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, Tripura or Haryana.
True, there’s still a
long way for much of India to come anywhere near the infant mortality rate
levels of Kerala (13) and Tamil Nadu (21). The latter two have also succeeded
in bringing down their fertility rates to 1.7 children per woman and achieving
near-100 per cent institutional births. Yet, the fact that fewer children are
dying and more women are becoming mothers after their teenage years while
largely delivering in hospitals — and this is taking place even in states that
seemed eternally condemned to backwardness not so long ago — is something to be
welcomed. One could credit this, partially at least, to interventions such as
the National Health Mission and state-level initiatives that have significantly
helped boost child immunisation and access to antenatal care. Rising female
literacy, new welfare schemes (including MNREGA and an expanded public
distribution system) and the trickle-down effects of high growth over the last
decade may also have played no small role in all this.
But on the negative
side, we are also witnessing the emergence of “new” diseases linked mainly to
unhealthy diets and sedentary lifestyles of people. The latest NFHS shows more
than a third of men and women in Andhra Pradesh to be obese. Roughly a tenth of
its men also suffer from hypertension and high blood sugar levels. These
problems may not be as serious right now in poorer states like Bihar. But
virtually all states have a high proportion of men consuming alcohol — from a
quarter to well over half — alongside a worrying decline in sex ratios between
the 2005-06 and 2015-16 surveys. These are indicative of a deeper social
malaise in a country where growth and rising incomes also create tensions and
uncertainties of a different kind. Public health policy cannot afford to ignore
them, even while continuing the fight against the “old” problems of mortality
and under-nutrition.
re·as·sure
Say or do something to
remove the doubts and fears of someone.
e·ter·nal·ly
In a way that continues
or lasts forever; permanently.
con·demn
Express complete
disapproval of, typically in public; censure.
backwardness
Retardation: lack of
normal development of intellectual capacities
immunisation
Immunization: the act of
making immune (especially by inoculation)
an·te·na·tal
Before birth; during or
relating to pregnancy; prenatal.
o·bese
Grossly fat or overweigh
ma·laise
A general feeling of
discomfort, illness, or uneasiness whose exact cause is difficult to identify.
BUSINESS STANDARD: The survivors
The initial trends in third-quarter (Q3) corporate results for the
period ended December 2015 indicate that little has changed for India Inc. The
growth trajectory remains flat. Operating profits have grown moderately and net
profits have declined. Operating margins are also flat. Debt servicing has
become harder due to low nominal growth. The early results in Business
Standard's database comprise a sample of 194 companies. Of these, 122 companies
are left if sectors like information technology and financial services are
excluded. Finally there isReliance Industries (RIL), which is so large that it causes distortions
single-handedly. RIL registered record net profits of Rs 7,357 crore (Rs 5,191
crore in Q3, 2014-15), and healthy gross refining margins (GRM). However,
revenues dropped sharply, by 24 per cent to Rs 73,341 crore (Rs 96,330 crore in
Q3 2014-15). The falling price of crude and concomitant falls in prices of
refined products explain the revenue contraction, the higher GRM and better
profitability.
Including RIL, the database of 194 companies has shown a revenue contraction of 2.6 per cent, year-on-year. If RIL is excluded, the other 193 companies under consideration have shown a reasonable 9.1 per cent increase in revenues. If financial services and information technology (IT) sectors as well as RIL are excluded, the remaining 121 companies have shown a 5.8 per cent increase in revenues. Operating profit has grown at 6.4 per cent for the database excluding RIL and at 7.3 per cent for the 121 companies, excluding RIL and companies in the financial services and IT sectors. Net profits grew only 1.6 per cent for the sample excluding RIL, and actually shrank by 0.8 per cent when excluding companies in the financial services and IT sectors as well. Operating margins stayed flat at 24.4 per cent.
These results indicate that companies are surviving in a difficult environment. Raw material costs declined 4.8 per cent, for the fourth consecutive quarter. However, other expenses have risen significantly. Employee costs for the database of 121 companies, excluding RIL and those in the financial services and IT sectors, have risen 7.1 per cent; interest costs have increased by a whopping 24.8 per cent. But corporate investments actually shrank during Q3. Rural demand remains muted, going by the disappointing results from consumer-goods majors. The higher interest costs could cause debt-servicing issues, especially in companies with high leverage. Interest coverage ratios (operating profits divided by interest outgo) have dropped across the board and are at worryingly low levels, the lowest for 12 quarters. The falling interest coverage ratios also gel with a wider phenomenon. India Inc has experienced lower inflation now for over a year. This means lower revenue growth and that makes debt-servicing difficult.
Early bird results can be deceptive, but these conform to known macro-economic trends. The commodity crash; low inflation; moderate revenue growth; low rural demand; potential issues in debt-servicing; all these are visible. Stock-pickers will be able to focus on companies whose results indicate they can thrive in tough environments. But there is no real evidence of a concerted uptick in performance.
Including RIL, the database of 194 companies has shown a revenue contraction of 2.6 per cent, year-on-year. If RIL is excluded, the other 193 companies under consideration have shown a reasonable 9.1 per cent increase in revenues. If financial services and information technology (IT) sectors as well as RIL are excluded, the remaining 121 companies have shown a 5.8 per cent increase in revenues. Operating profit has grown at 6.4 per cent for the database excluding RIL and at 7.3 per cent for the 121 companies, excluding RIL and companies in the financial services and IT sectors. Net profits grew only 1.6 per cent for the sample excluding RIL, and actually shrank by 0.8 per cent when excluding companies in the financial services and IT sectors as well. Operating margins stayed flat at 24.4 per cent.
These results indicate that companies are surviving in a difficult environment. Raw material costs declined 4.8 per cent, for the fourth consecutive quarter. However, other expenses have risen significantly. Employee costs for the database of 121 companies, excluding RIL and those in the financial services and IT sectors, have risen 7.1 per cent; interest costs have increased by a whopping 24.8 per cent. But corporate investments actually shrank during Q3. Rural demand remains muted, going by the disappointing results from consumer-goods majors. The higher interest costs could cause debt-servicing issues, especially in companies with high leverage. Interest coverage ratios (operating profits divided by interest outgo) have dropped across the board and are at worryingly low levels, the lowest for 12 quarters. The falling interest coverage ratios also gel with a wider phenomenon. India Inc has experienced lower inflation now for over a year. This means lower revenue growth and that makes debt-servicing difficult.
Early bird results can be deceptive, but these conform to known macro-economic trends. The commodity crash; low inflation; moderate revenue growth; low rural demand; potential issues in debt-servicing; all these are visible. Stock-pickers will be able to focus on companies whose results indicate they can thrive in tough environments. But there is no real evidence of a concerted uptick in performance.
sur·vi·vor
A person who survives,
especially a person remaining alive after an event in which others have died.
tra·jec·to·ry
The path followed by a
projectile flying or an object moving under the action of given forces.
con·com·i·tant
Naturally accompanying or
associated.
shrink
Become or make smaller in
size or amount; contract or cause to contract.
whop·ping
Very large.
phe·nom·e·non
A fact or situation that
is observed to exist or happen, especially one whose cause or explanation is in
question.
de·cep·tive
Giving an appearance or
impression different from the true one; misleading.
con·form
Comply with rules,
standards, or laws.
con·cert·ed
Jointly arranged,
planned, or carried out; coordinated.
up·tick
A small increase.
Newspaper editorials
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Link to Read it
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The NewYork
Times(USA)
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The Moscow Times
(Russia)
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The Guardian (UK)
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The Dawn(Pakistan)
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